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Stock volume analysis

I like to use volume as powerful confirming technical indicator. Why ? This is only one indicator which is not calculated from price!

Strong volume during trading day indicates important market action .

You have to pay bigger attention to stock or market action when you see high levels of volume during these situations:

  1. Stock is breaking significant level of support or resistance

  2. Stock is bouncing from significant level of support or resistance

These two situations are important for us. They tell us that new trend move is developing. You want to enter trade during these days. Entry price should be as close to such important S/R level as is possible.

Watch situation on these two chart examples:

stock volume breakout


The MYGN chart above is nice example of breakout of resistance level with very high volume. Strong volume (approx five times more then average) allows stock to rise almost 4 points in one day (almost 10%)

Next example:

BIIB strong volume moves


Do you see as arrows point to important volume and when it happened ?

  1. high volume when bouncing from support level
  2. high volume during breakout of trendline resistance
  3. again high volume during bounce from support
  4. breakout of horizontal resistance with above average volume


But you can find also above average volume in situation when trend is already running. After several strong moves you see that last day is accompanied by strong volume. This is warning sign. When I am in trade and see such situation on my real time chart, I like to do these 2 steps:
  1. sell or cover part of my shares into strength (1/3 at least)
  2. move my stop closer

Strong volume after several trend days means that big players are trying to exit their positions to the hands of latecomers. My favorite trader Tony Oz calls them bagholders:-)
They will buy also from us and allow us to realize nice profit.

Watch this GS stock chart:

GS_volume_finishing_trend


You can see extreme volume level at the end of strong decline. This is level where fear is big. And most professionals use such days to cover their short positions into hands of bagholders.



! My stock volume analysis tip:

Use simple moving average to define average level of volume. Put this average line into your chart and then you will be able easy spot above average volume days.

I use 20 days SMA on my stock charts. You can see it above.




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